Prime Picks: UFC Paris ‘Imavov vs. Borralho’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship heads across the pond to Paris for the fourth time in four years, and this show looks to be just as solid as its predecessors. Local talent and fun fighters populate the overstuffed lineup, which surprisingly does not have many lopsided lines. Only two athletes come in above -350, with half of the bouts seeing the favored party closer than -200. Join the UFC Paris edition of Prime Picks, where we choose violence in almost every bet-worthy pairing other than the big fellas.

Nassourdine Imavov (+115)

Local athletes are 2-1 with the promotion in Parisian headliners, although that stat is slightly skewed given that both victories can be attributed to Ciryl Gane. The loss goes to Benoit St. Denis, who had his face rearranged by the unexpected striking gains from Renato “Money” Moicano. Normally, the organization tends to stack the deck, not so much to give a favorable matchup to a regional combatant but to avoid pairing them against a mobile organism designed only for killing. This may not be the case for this main attraction, with the Frenchman Imavov at plus money against Fighting Nerds standout Caio Borralho.

There’s a fair experience gap between the two evenly matched middleweights who both measure 75 inches in the arms. While Borralho crashed into the rankings thanks to a one-sided decision over ex-heavyweight Jared Cannonier, that level of adversary is old hat to “The Sniper.” Unlike Borralho, Imavov was able to put “The Killa Gorilla” away, and he further showed that he’s an elite 185er by beating Brendan Allen to the punch and then wiping out Israel Adesanya. While the Brazilian has leaned on his power of late, he will be facing an arguably superior striker—there’s a statistical question, given that Borralho is more accurate and harder to hit—who gets in a groove and is hard to shut down. Unless Borralho can punch his way into takedowns and shut down Imavov like Phil Hawes did in 2021, this has all the makings of an upset in the City of Lights thanks to the boxing of the underdog.

Benoit St. Denis-Mauricio Ruffy Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-140)

The “Just Bleed” deity will be pleased with this ultraviolent co-main attraction, as a veritable hurricane of fists and feet will clash together until someone falls down. Smashing together two hilariously hostile lightweights practically promises a stoppage before too long, and their combined 26 wins with 25 finishes can attest to that. The last 2:30 of the second round proves to be a significant difference maker in betting lines, as the under of 1.5 rounds clocks in at plus money (+125), while reaching the end of the second stanza hits in minus territory. Keeping this piece not the MMA odds equivalent of “Best in Show”—that is, a [under]dog show—there’s a little more sense in predicting that at most two rounds will complete given recent histories.

St. Denis has only heard the final bell once in the UFC, and it was in his Octagon debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Since then, it has been all live by the sword, die by the sword for the Frenchman. His opponent has a far less established ledger, but his two knockouts, including the spinning wheel kick of Bobby Green, made him an immediate contender on the rise. There’s little indication either man will take much of a step back once the referee clocks them in, with losses not slowing the aggression of “God of War” much. This play also allows us to avoid trying to select who we think will win, even if most prognosticators expect the evening will belong to the Fighting Nerds and not the French faithful.

Marcin Tybura-Ante Delija Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (+100)

Barring an egregious weight miss, there remains one heavyweight match on this show’s lengthy lineup, and it’s indicative of what the division appears to be offering lately. A longtime veteran who tends to get a bit grindy faces off against a new recruit, only the latter is Ante Delija, a former Professional Fighters League tournament winner. Chin has been an issue for Delija, given that the strikes of Valentin Moldavsky put him down in what was only the second career knockout for the Russian. Additionally, the combined age of this smash-’em-up derby is 74 years, which is par for the course with one man clocking in at close 40.

What might make this bout even more “heavyweighty” is that it’s a rematch from nearly 10 years ago at an M-1 Challenge card. Delija snapped his leg in half on a checked kick, and that kept him out of action for over two and a half years. That result has practically nothing to do with their current odds, which have them at a pick’em, with Delija holding the slight edge on most but not all books. The stoppage rate of 63% is deceptive for “Tybur,” as he holds the second-most decision victories in UFC heavyweight history with eight; Andrei Arlovski has 12. Those who can walk Tybura down and bust him in the chops can do well, but anyone else tends to struggle due to the Polish big man’s wrestling and clinch game. If Tybura gets in his groove, “Walking Trouble” is in for a troublesome night.