Preview: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

Men’s Bantamweights

Miles Johns (15-3, 1 NC; 6-3, 1 NC UFC) vs. Jean Matsumoto (16-1, 2-1 UFC)

Odds: Matsumoto (-310); Johns (+250)
Johns remains one of the toughest fighters in the UFC to prognosticate and, often, one of the most frustrating to watch. On one hand, he feels so much like a busted prospect at times that it’s surprising to realize he’s a not-bad-at-all 6-3 in the UFC with one no contest. Then you remember that the no contest was due to a drug test and, even more frustratingly, on sheer talent he should be no worse than 9-1 right now.

At his best, Johns is a classic, almost throwback wrestle-boxer, a compact, explosive ball of muscle who uses the threat of his takedowns to set up big power punches and vice versa. While that has been a known MMA archetype for at least a quarter of a century at this point, it can still be very effective when paired with forward pressure, submission awareness and cardio. Unfortunately, Johns does not always bring the first two items on that list, and when he does not, he underperforms.

His loss to Mario Bautista may just have been a case of running into a better, more skilled fighter—especially at the time—in a tough style matchup, but getting tapped out by a marginal UFC talent in John Castaneda was a bad look, and even in several of his wins, he has been lulled into long periods of inactivity, which has left rounds and fights closer than they needed to be.

Matsumoto is not a perfect fighter by any stretch, but he may be closer to figuring out what kind of fighter he is than Johns. The 25-year-old Brazilian is a great athlete, and everything else runs off of that. His striking is more effective than technical at this point, but when he throws, he throws a ton, and with good power. His offensive wrestling seems designed to create scrambles, which works well with his instincts and proprioception in transition.

Matsumoto came up short against Rob Font in his most recent outing, but some of that can be excused due to the extreme short notice, not to mention Font fighting wildly against his usual tendencies. The result was a split decision with scores all over the map, and it is worth noting that quite a few seasoned observers thought Matsumoto should have won.

This fight is perfectly set up for Johns to spring the upset. If he elects to make a sprawl-and-brawl affair out of it, he could likely outland Matsumoto on the feet, and has comparable power. If he wants to make it a ground fight, he would be best served to initiate takedowns himself rather than wait for Matsumoto; while he is effective in scrambles, Matsumoto may be even more so, and Johns is actually very solid from top position.

It is one thing to point out the obvious paths to victory for Johns, but quite another to see him follow them. The pick here is for Matsumoto to pick up a solid, well deserved decision win, in a fight that hinges on him being better at knowing when to switch between the standup and ground phases of the fight.



Jump To »
Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Erceg vs. Osbourne
Lucindo vs. Hill
Fili vs. Rodriguez
Johns vs. Matsumoto
Anders vs. Duncan
The Prelims